Analysis and commentary related to current events, the geopolitics of oil, contemporary Iran and the Middle East.
Instituto Affari Internazionali
May 9, 2020
The twin crises of COVID-19 and the crash in world oil prices have profoundly affected the geopolitics of the Middle East. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran face differing challenges from the crises linked to their domestic politics and foreign policy stature.
May 1, 2020
Some have argued that the US should commit to an increasing dependence on petroleum, as well as ushering in a new cycle of overseas interventions propping up an existing, overburdened, and outdated system of U.S. military hegemony.
Passport: The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations Review
Gregory Brew comments on US-Iranian relations in the wake of the Soleimani assassination and escalating tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
March 20, 2020
Saudi Arabia and Russia cooperated for years to maintain the value of their chief export—oil. This month, that collusion collapsed into a price war with both countries unexpectedly boosting production. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic and China’s decreasing oil demands, fears of an uncertain future are shaking the fossil fuel economy.
March 13, 2020
Trump loosened regulations on oil drilling in pursuit of his “energy dominance” policy, but the recent Saudi “oil shock” has demonstrated its fragility.
December 2, 2019
Iranian protests against steep gasoline price hikes shows the government is struggling to balance its budget as oil exports decline.
November 4, 2019
Forty years after the fall of the US Embassy in Tehran, a look back on what led the United States to its fundamental break in Iran.
October 25, 2019
The President's risk, legally-sketchy plan to secure Syrian oil threatens to further complicate an already difficult situation
September 25, 2019
The immediate impact of Abqaiq may have been minor, but the long-term lessons from this incident are bound to become more clear with time.
September 09, 2019
The appointment of Prince Abdulaziz, the second change in Saudi energy leadership in three years, illustrates the challenges facing the Kingdom
August 13, 2019
For anyone raised on fears of “peak oil,” gasoline shortages and perpetual high prices, it seems a bit surreal that oil should be in over-supply for this long.
May 20, 2019
On May 8, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) invited U.S. Special Representative Brian Hook to an event commemorating one year of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. His comments regarding the 1953 CIA-sponsored coup in Iran hinted at a revisionist interpretation that flies in the face of decades of scholarship.
February 11, 2019
On January 16, 1979, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the shah of Iran, boarded a plane at Mehrabad Airport near Tehran. American attitudes towards the shah changed considerably over time. From an inexperienced neophyte wracked with indecision, the shah gradually came to be seen as a “revolutionary monarch” and a pillar of U.S. Cold War strategy. His faults, evident from the beginning, were ignored or excused, even as his policies exacerbated Iran’s problems, eventually bringing about his fall from power.
January 22, 2019
This essay reviews U.S. policy towards Iran under the Trump Administration, for the H-Diplo ISSF Trump in the World series. During its first two years in office, the Trump Administration pursued a policy towards Iran defined by pain and pressure. From abandoning the JCPOA, to adopting a hard-line against Iran through sanctions and rhetoric, the Trump Administration pivoted away from the diplomatic gestures of the Obama Administration, in a determined effort to apply “maximum pressure” and even, some believe, to bring about the collapse of the Islamic Republic itself.
December 7, 2018
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries likes to look united.
That’s evident when OPEC leaders meet in Vienna at the end of each year to decide how much oil its members will aim to produce the next year. There is always a show of togetherness and the appearance of the quasi-cartel’s ability to move markets. But the truth is, OPEC is in the midst of a major crisis.
November 13, 2018
The Trump administration has formally imposed new sanctions on Iran aimed at hindering Iran’s oil exports – a move that had been in the works for six months. New sanctions do not serve U.S. energy interests because they may spark price increases that would punish American consumers. More generally, this move illustrates what I see as the incoherence of Trump’s energy policies and international diplomacy.
July 17, 2018
The United States has embarked upon a campaign of "maximum pressure" against Iran. This course of action is not only ill-advised, it is potentially extremely dangerous, both for the U.S. and the broader stability of the Middle East.
The National Interest
June 18, 2017
In the past, risk measurably increased when things got tense near the oil fields of the Middle East. Today, the world’s energy supply and consumption patterns are more complex.